Social Security Reform: A Long-Term Modelling Perspective

Year Published 2012
Business unit: Special Projects
Resource type: Case study
File type: PDF
Theme(s): Employment & labour markets, Labour, Public Service & Administration


Technical paper prepared for the Inter-Departmental Task Team on Social Security and Retirement Reform. The framework developed in this paper shows South Africa as it is today in terms of population, labour force, and income distribution and then projects how it is likely to develop over the next 70 years based on the results of a dynamic micro-simulation model. Next, the paper examines the interaction between the NSSF and the broader economy over this timeframe. The purpose of this exercise is to assess whether the NSSF will achieve the goals that underlie the reform proposals, and whether these proposals will have a positive impact on the broader economy. The paper focuses on the coverage of the NSSF, the reduction in poverty associated with social security, and the redistributional impact.

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