Disaster-induced import dynamics: Evidence from South African floods

Climate-induced flooding is reshaping trade, supply chains, and economic resilience in South Africa. In this presentation Marina Dodlova, Justyna Jantos, Krisztina Kis-Katos, and Anna Kochanova examined how floods disrupt firms, infrastructure, production, and regional trade networks using linked customs, tax, payroll, and flood exposure data from 2013–2021.

The study explored both the direct impacts of flooding on firms and the indirect effects transmitted through supply chains, highlighting how intermediary firms adapt by increasing imports particularly from African trade partners and China when domestic suppliers are disrupted.

The session also considered the broader policy implications for climate resilience, regional trade integration, infrastructure planning, and economic adaptation in developing economies facing increasing climate-related shocks.