Disaster-induced import dynamics: Evidence from South African floods

“Disaster-induced import dynamics: Evidence from South African floods.”

This webinar draws on new research from the Southern Africa – Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED) programme, examining how floods affect import dynamics across South African local municipalities. Using administrative firm-level data and detailed customs transaction records, the paper explores two possible responses to flood shocks: firms may reduce imports when local economic activity is disrupted or increase imports when domestic supply chains are affected and foreign suppliers become a substitute.

The findings show that floods do not have lasting effects on aggregate import dynamics on average. However, this masks important differences across firm types. Trading companies and intermediaries appear to play a central role: they reduce imports when floods affect local markets, but increase imports when floods disrupt domestic supply chains. These adjustments are especially visible in low-complexity goods and imports from African trading partners.

Speaker Marina Dodlova will unpack:

• How floods affect firms’ import behaviour in South Africa;
• Whether aggregate import trends hide important firm-level responses;
• The role of intermediaries in helping firms adjust to supply-chain disruptions; and
• What this means for understanding trade, climate shocks, and economic resilience.

The presentation is based on the SA-TIED working paper 283 “Disaster-induced import dynamics: Evidence from South African floods.”

Join us as we explore how floods affect firms’ import behaviour in South Africa.

DATE: Friday, 15 May 2026
TIME: 14:00 to 15:15
WEBINAR LINK: Click Here join the meeting (Microsoft Teams)