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GTAC’s Research Repository is a new initiative to make research in the field of public economics, public policy and development studies easily accessible to students, researchers and government officials.

The Research Repository starts with a collection of over 300 published and unpublished documents mainly in the field of employment - HSRCspecifically looking at the sub-categories of the labour market, food and agriculture, network infrastructure, macro-economics and social policy.​ ​This initial repo​​sitory is primarily based on the large volume of research conducted under the leadership of Dr Miriam Altman during her tenure at the HSRC. Between 2004 and 2010, Dr Altman and her team produced a substantial body of research to support evidence-based policy making towards full employment. Leaders from government, business, labour and academia were drawn together to guide this work and to enable its infusion into strategy and action. ​​​​​​​​​​
Click the Categories below to view the relevant research papers.​
Use the Site search to do "in document" search for​​ content within documents.​​​
  
  
  
  
Synopsis
A Community Development Approach to Early Childhood  Children – Our Future Communities.pdfA Community Development Approach to Early Childhood Children – Our Future CommunitiesDiana Hornby2005
Hornby assesses early childhood development (ECD) programmes, using the Centre for Social Development (CSD), based in Grahamstown, Eastern Cape, as an example. The paper starts by providing a conceptual outline of development, focusing on social development and ECD. It then reviews the current status of ECD in South Africa. The paper documents the transformation of the CSD from an educational to a social development organisation. The CSD was established in August 1981 as an outreach arm of Rhodes University to administer bursaries at the tertiary level, establish facilities in the townships catering for
Accounting for Changes in Manufacturing Employment in South Africa.pdfAccounting for Changes in Manufacturing Employment in South AfricaFiona Tregenna
Tregenna assesses the components and possible causal determinants of changes in manufacturing employment in South Africa. It focuses on the relationships between capital stock, capacity utilisation, relative factor utilisation, and employment. Basic decomposition techniques are used to investigate the extent to which these factors account for changes in employment between 1970 and 2004. Although this analysis does not explain underlying causal relationships, it may shed light on the various changes over time and on priorities for further research. From a policy perspective, identifying the critical blockages to employment growth may be helpful for designing focused interventions to reduce the devastating levels of unemployment in the country.
An Analysis of South Africas Trade in Device Data.pdfAn Analysis of South Africas Trade in Device DataGreg Lewis2004
Accurate data on trade in services is necessary to inform industrial policy in the services sectors and to shape negotiating strategy at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Due to the inherent difficulty of measuring trade in services, however, there had until recently been little effort to provide a coherent conceptual framework for such trade activities. This has changed with the publication of the Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services (2002). This manual introduces a number of refinements necessary to capture trade in services in a manner consistent with the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). These include a more disaggregated standard for balance of payments reporting, namely the Extended Balance of Payments Services Classification (EBOPS); a system of reporting for foreign affiliate trade in services (FATS), which is necessary to capture trade via commercial presence (mode 3); and a technical appendix dealing with the difficulties of trade in natural persons (mode 4).
Botox and Bridges  South African Exports of Health and Construction Services.pdfBotox and Bridges South African Exports of Health and Construction ServicesMatthew Stern2005
Using case studies of the South African construction and health services sectors, Stern outlines the main methodological and policy challenges facing developing countries in assessing the economic and social implications of service liberalisation. While the findings are preliminary and the policy conclusions speculative, the paper provides examples of key analytical difficulties in analysing services. More importantly, it highlights the need for government to develop integrated service sector strategies that recognise the contribution of trade to development policy and the impact of domestic regulations on trade
Budgeting for Job Creation in Social Welfare Services – Exploring EPWP Opportunities.pdfBudgeting for Job Creation in Social Welfare Services – Exploring EPWP OpportunitiesD. Plaatjies and K. Nicolaou-Manias2005
Plaatjies et al. consider the budgeting process for social welfare services. Creating jobs in social welfare and community-based services received considerable attention in the HSRC’s Employment Scenarios project. The paper reviews the EPWP, its objectives and its role in the social services sector. It focuses on three elements: early childhood development, home- and community-based care, and community health workers. The social services pillar of the EPWP could addresses unemployment while delivering services to children and others in need of care. Plaatjies et al. frame potential employment creation by skill level in these types of services.
Business Process Outsourcing in Identified Financial Services Sub-Sectors.pdfBusiness Process Outsourcing in Identified Financial Services Sub-SectorsUnknown2006
Business process outsourcing (BPO) has enormous potential to support economic growth and employment in South Africa. So far, the country’s focus has mainly been on contact centres, where it does not enjoy a comparative advantage. Competitive advantage is more likely to be found in back-office BPO: this paper specifically looks at potential opportunity in asset management BPO and related financial services.
The key drivers of this part of the outsourcing market, discusses the potential economic benefits, and provides a detailed assessment of the local and foreign companies currently engaged in BPO operations in South Africa. It reviews the key factors that influence the decision to be based in South Africa and provides an initial assessment of the potential of this segment of the BPO market.
Centre for Poverty Employment and Growth Employment Through Procurement.pdfCentre for Poverty Employment and Growth Employment Through ProcurementGobal Sustainable Development2009
HSRC’s Private Preferential Procurement and Value Creation Project aims to promote employment and value creation by developing and disseminating a knowledge base of procurement strategies to achieve socio-economic objectives. This paper discusses the results of the initial desktop study and of the interviews and engagements with Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality, the National Business Initiative and large corporations.
Constructing Future Growth Opportunities.pdfConstructing Future Growth OpportunitiesSandra Lowitt2008
Lowitt assesses the economic contribution of South Africa’s civil engineering and construction works sector through both domestic and export activity. The paper then compares the domestic sector and government’s approach to export activity with those of other developing countries. The idea of using external demand to grow a domestic construction sector is not new, and international literature on this topic is innovative and substantial. The literature and international experience suggest that South Africa has not historically followed international practices. The paper considers lessons for South Africa, on-the-ground constraints to increased exports, and possible steps to ameliorate these constraints
Costing Centre-Based Early Childhood Development Programmes for Children Under Age Five.pdfCosting Centre-Based Early Childhood Development Programmes for Children Under Age FiveJonathan Carter, Linda Biersteker and Judith Streak2008
This paper is one of a series developed to inform the Scaling Up ECD Services (0–4 years) Research Project, with the aim of improving child development and creating jobs.
Carter et al. capture information about the cost of providing ECD for children under the age of five through different forms of centre-based provision. The paper also sought to identify existing and possible innovations that would contribute to cost efficiencies in the scaling up of ECD.
Case studies were used to collect financial information from ECD centres and identify practices that lead to cost savings in these centres. The paper analyses the cost structures in ECD centres and identifies a realistic estimate of the cost of providing services; presents a series of case studies of different cost structures; discusses the key issues affecting ECD centres’ ability to raise revenue and access government services; and make recommendations on the above that will contribute to the sustainable achievement of the government’s vision set out in the NIP.

Deliverable 5 Testing innovations to Rapidly Expand Quality ECD (0-4) Services.pdfDeliverable 5 Testing innovations to Rapidly Expand Quality ECD (0-4) ServicesMiriam Altman,Andrew Dawes,Linda Biersteker,Shirin Motala2008
This paper is one of a series developed to inform the Scaling Up ECD Services (0–4 years) Research Project with the aim of improving child development and significant job creation. Altman et al. identify approaches to responsible and effective innovation in the service delivery process to fast-track the expansion of quality services for vulnerable children. The aim is to identify a set of innovations that might be tested in pilot projects within the existing ECD programmes and in partnership with key stakeholders, including government and delivery agents.
This paper begins with an overview of what a demonstration project is, and then reviews the objectives of implementing demonstration projects in ECD 0–4. It identifies critical challenges in scaling up quality ECD 0–4, as well as a number of possible institutional innovations that could be implemented and tested as demonstration projects. Finally, it proposes a draft plan for finalising the design of the demonstration project, identifying partnerships, determining sites where the demonstration projects may be implemented, and mobilising resources.

Development Paths and Employment.pdfDevelopment Paths and EmploymentRob Davies and Dirk van Seventer2009
Intensive growth is defined as growth driven by productivity improvements. Productivity improvements are essential for rising incomes and poverty reduction, but can also have the effect of reducing employment ratios. Greater understanding of the role of productivity in development and growth is needed.
Dynamic and Follower Sectors.pdfDynamic and Follower SectorsDr Miriam Altman and Stewart Ngandu2008
South African industrial policy has been criticised as excessively focused on international trade and industries that are capital- and skill-intensive. This frustration is understandable in a context of a large labour surplus. The global evidence shows that a significant proportion of new jobs are created in non-traded sectors, such as retail or personal services. However, it is difficult to see how a long-run growth strategy will be driven by non-tradables. There are no examples of high-growth economies that did not succeed in penetrating global markets.
Employment and Economic Growth Employment Elasticities in Thailand Brazil Chile and Argentina.pdfEmployment and Economic Growth Employment Elasticities in Thailand Brazil Chile and ArgentinaMaja Pleic and Prof Albert  Berry2009
In order to judge how much better South Africa could do in terms of job creation, it is important to have a benchmark for comparison. The experience of other countries and the recipes for their success are a key input into effective policy design. Case studies of such countries are valuable because they provide evidence of the conditions (including policies) under which the best employment–wage combinations are achieved. Such studies reveal, among other things, that high employment elasticities of 0.5 or more when growth has been in the range 6–7% per year have been reasonably common, indicating that they are frequently attainable under certain circumstances and for periods of a decade or more.
Employment and Skills in South African Exports.pdfEmployment and Skills in South African ExportsDirk Emst van Seventer 2006
Van Seventer reports on the labour absorption of South Africa’s exports, using a simple configuration based on a first-generation social accounting matrix (SAM). The paper compares the labour absorption of exports with that of domestic demand, and also discusses labour absorption by destination market. A distinction is made between full backward linkages and those where supply constraints are considered in the primary sectors. The paper also considers marginal versus average demand for labour responses to domestic and foreign demand injections. It finds that on average, exports require more low-skilled labour than does domestic demand, but if supply constraints are introduced and only marginal increases are considered, domestic demand appears to be more labour-intensive. In terms of destination markets, the paper broadly confirms findings from the mid-1990s that South African exports to developed countries use more low-skilled labour, while exports to developing markets use more high-skilled labour.
Employment Scenarios  How Do Sources of Job Creation Matter.pdfEmployment Scenarios How Do Sources of Job Creation MatterMiriam Altman2007
This paper was the initial version of the HSRC’s Employment Scenarios. Altman starts by proposing four categories of job-creating sectors: those that focus on poverty alleviation (such as special employment projects), the public service, ‘follower’ services (generally low-paid, non-traded activity, such as retail) and ‘dynamic’ goods and services industries that are traded (such as finance, tourism or manufacturing).
Employment Scenarios to 2014 and 2024 in The Context of A Global Economic Slowdown.pdfEmployment Scenarios to 2014 and 2024 in The Context of A Global Economic SlowdownDr. Miriam Altman2009
The scenarios produced for this paper are revised from the 2007 version to take into account the possible impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on employment and poverty. Altman puts forward three employment scenarios, projecting economic growth rates averaging 2.5% (L-shaped recovery), 3.3% (U-shaped recovery) and 4.5% (V-shaped recovery) between 2004 and 2014. They all assume the existing policy environment, albeit with different levels of success in implementation.
Employment Scenarios to 2024.pdfEmployment Scenarios to 2024Dr. Miriam Altman2007
The South African government adopted targets of halving unemployment and poverty by 2014. Altman assembles a set of possible scenarios for 2024 for achieving that goal. The approach is to identify the decisions required to boost job creation under different economic conditions, and to set realistic expectations for how certain market-based sectors might contribute to employment growth.
Employment Through Government Procurement.pdfEmployment Through Government ProcurementMiriam Altman,Rènette du Toit,Thabo Sephiri and Kaiser Associates2005
Government expenditure is a key lever for influencing the nature and pace of employment creation, especially in sectors where it is a provider or procurer of services. Therefore, the HSRC’s Leveraging Services Project for Employment, Growth and Equity reviewed the possibilities for creating jobs indirectly through procurement by government and state-owned enterprises, and directly through meeting basic needs for social development services and intensifying labour use in infrastructure programmes.
Four background papers were prepared, including a review of government procurement practices and behaviour, the global context for social development programmes, a review of South Africa’s policy on social development programmes, and a review of the impact of government-generated employment. This paper provides an overview of the interim findings.

Employment Through Procurement Municipal Case Studies on Pursuing Social Economic Objectives through Procurment.pdfEmployment Through Procurement Municipal Case Studies on Pursuing Social Economic Objectives through ProcurmentDr Sean Phillips and Mr Mehleli Mpofu2010
Phillips and Mpofu review municipal approaches to achieving socio-economic objectives through procurement. They focus on how municipalities can implement dedicated programmes to achieve socio-economic objectives through procurement; whether this can be done within the existing regulatory framework; and what the impact of such programmes could be. The socio-economic objectives investigated included increasing employment, local content, and SME and/or BEE involvement in municipal supply chains.
Enhancing The Impact of Procurement on Employment Creation.pdfEnhancing The Impact of Procurement on Employment CreationKaiser & Associates2005
This paper consolidates existing research and data on procurement and employment in South Africa; estimates the total current procurement spend across all three spheres of government, as well as the major procurement items; provides a problem analysis of the constraints to and opportunities for increasing the contribution of procurement to employment creation; develops a draft conceptual framework to guide government’s deliberations on potential interventions and/or programmes; and suggests areas of further research to be prioritised.
Exchange Rate and Employment Project  Overview.pdfExchange Rate and Employment Project OverviewS. Ngandu2006
Ngandu summarises the HSRC’s project on the relationship between the exchange rate and employment outcomes, and its possible policy implications. While there appears to be consensus that the currency is too volatile, little attention has been paid to what an employment-inducing exchange rate would be. The suite of papers in the exchange rate project tries to fill these gaps.
Exchange Rates and Employment  The Experience of Fast-Growing Economies.pdfExchange Rates and Employment The Experience of Fast-Growing EconomiesStewart Ngandu2005
This paper forms part of an HSRC project on exchange rates and employment (MACRO006), which seeks to understand the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on employment in South Africa. The paper examines the exchange rate policies of countries that achieved rapid, labour-absorbing growth. While exchange rates are only one instrument in an employment and growth policy, commonality in policy approach among fast-growing economies might offer useful policy pointers.
Exchange Rates and Employment Critical Issues.pdfExchange Rates and Employment Critical IssuesStewart Ngandu2008
International evidence suggests that the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade is insignificant. However, in the case of South Africa, exchange rates do seem to exert a significant influence on employment. In an attempt to address this issue, an HSRC study (MACRO006) was framed to better understand the link between exchange rates and employment. Two exploratory studies were prepared. The first was a small firm survey (MACRO013) to examine how importing and exporting firms in different sectors and operating at different scales respond to changes in the exchange rate. The second study used an economy-wide computerised general equilibrium model (CGE) to ask how, at a single point in time, an exchange rate shock affects employment, output and trade.
Forecasting The Demand for Scarce Skills 2001-2006.pdfForecasting The Demand for Scarce Skills 2001-2006Ingrid Woolard, Philip Kneebone, and Deborah Lee2003
Woolard describes a study of the demand for high-level human resources for the period 2001–2006 and forecasts the number of new positions arising and the replacement demand over the period. She uses a labour demand model to estimate the number of new positions stemming from industrial growth. It shows that the demand for engineers, natural scientists and computer-related professionals will be strong (i.e. more than 2%), reflecting the increasing use of technology in all spheres of life. At the same time, the continued fiscal restraint by government will limit increases in professional employment in the public sector, with the number of educators and lecturers showing no growth, and the number of medical practitioners and nurses showing only 1% growth each. Nevertheless, replacement demand should be strong, as the effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic escalates and adds to the vacancies created by retirements, emigration and other causes of mortality.
Formal-informal Economy Linkages and Unemployment in South Africa.pdfFormal-informal Economy Linkages and Unemployment in South AfricaRob Davies and James Turlow2009
South Africa’s high involuntary unemployment and small informal sector are attributed to an underperforming formal sector and barriers to entry into the informal sector. Davies and Thurlow examine the economy-wide linkages between the formal and informal economies, while accounting for different types of informal activities. A multi-region, empirically calibrated computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is developed, capturing both product and labour markets. Three policy options are considered.
Framework for Evaluating the Expanded Public Works Program.pdfFramework for Evaluating the Expanded Public Works ProgramSizwe Phakathi, Dr Ingrid Woolard,Dr Renette du Toit,Mr Khangelani Zuma and Mr Sizwe Phakathi2004
The purpose of this report is to set out a framework for evaluating the impact of the Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP). The monitoring framework is provided in a separate document. The report provides a comprehensive and integrated approach to evaluating the impact of the EPWP on employment, poverty and service delivery. The research methodology included a review of domestic and international literature, as well as close interactions with government departments tasked with implementing the various programmes that comprise the EPWP.
The development of the evaluation programme for the EPWP has been guided by three factors: international best practice in the evaluation of public works programmes, the areas to be evaluated, and the cost associated with different evaluation techniques. The research team sought to find a balance between these three that would yield an effective and affordable evaluation framework.
The proposed evaluation techniques include cross-sectional surveys, longitudinal surveys, case studies, poverty impact analysis, aggregate impact analysis, and an assessment of quality of assets and services.

Global Trends in Waste Management  Some Pointers for South Africa.pdfGlobal Trends in Waste Management Some Pointers for South AfricaSaliem Fakir2009
Fakir considers the growth and job-creating potential of the recycling industry. He reviews global trends in recycling, identifies innovations, and explores how these can be used in South Africa. The paper investigates the economic benefits of recycling, and suggests that waste should be seen as a national resource. The life cycle of materials is examined in order to explore how the end use of components can be incorporated into designs to minimise waste.
Government should promote recycling through regulation and incentives. The benefits of recycling go beyond a reduction in landfill and in costs to the environment and to health, and include savings on energy expenditure, a reduced burden on mineral ore reserves, and job creation. But there are particular challenges related to the reuse of waste. South Africa faces a large informal sector, a diverse composition of waste, low levels of education, and inadequate infrastructure. In this environment, there are opportunities for low-tech solutions. There is also a need to deal with a broader range of recyclates and higher levels of electronic waste.
Grappling with Youth Employability in South Africa.pdfGrappling with Youth Employability in South AfricaCarmel Marock, Singizi2008
Marock reviews youth employability in South Africa, focusing on the minimum capabilities required to enable economic participation. She then considers the extent to which these capabilities are being developed in local schools, and explores the role of special programmes in bridging identified gaps. Finally, she analyses broader contextual issues around employability and highlights questions that require further consideration.
Increasing Access to Employment Through Government Programmes.pdfIncreasing Access to Employment Through Government ProgrammesSadi Luka2005
Luka provides an overview of the Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP) and its role in supporting community development. It assesses the Community Development Workers (CDW) programme, the principles and rationale for using community development workers, and the nature and scope of their work. It looks specifically at their training, and identifies several challenges in this regard.
The CDW programme was fairly new and very little research had been done to assess its impact. The main challenges were around avoiding duplication with the functions of various national, provincial and local departments or forums at community level. The report underlines the need to assess the impact of the CDW programme and implement appropriate measures to address these challenges.

Industrial Strategy  Offshoring and Employment Promotion in South Africa.pdfIndustrial Strategy Offshoring and Employment Promotion in South AfricaMiriam Altman
South Africa has an extremely high rate of unemployment, but also substantial capacity in the service industries. Business process outsourcing and offshoring (BPO&O) is a rapidly expanding global opportunity through which the country might generate many jobs in traded activities. It is essentially a new activity, enabled by the diffusion of broadband and Internet services in the 2000s. To date, India and the Philippines are the only developing countries to have positioned themselves effectively to generate significant employment.
Altman reviews the country’s global positioning for BPO&O industrial expansion. The paper discusses the global context, as well as the success of India and the Philippines, the current market leaders. It then considers South Africa’s experience as an emergent entrant to BPO&O, and assesses its attempts to gain a greater share of this market.
Informal Employment in South Africa.pdfInformal Employment in South AfricaImraan Valodia2007
Employment policy in South Africa has paid only limited attention to the informal economy. Valodia argues that any reliable scenarios of employment need to pay due attention to this part of the economy. Informal employment has grown substantially in the post-1994 period, although it is still limited. This is in part because the unemployed face significant barriers to entry into the informal economy. In addition, the formal economy has deep reach into consumer markets, including among poor households, and is able to exploit economies of scale to outcompete the informal sector. Thus the informal sector in South Africa is small precisely because the formal sector is large. Policy attempts to ease entry into the informal economy will have to address demand considerations, and specifically the relationship between the formal and informal sectors.
Innovation in Resource-Based Technology Clusters  investigating The Lateral Migration Thesis.pdfInnovation in Resource-Based Technology Clusters investigating The Lateral Migration ThesisProf J. Lorentzen2006
Business process outsourcing (BPO) has enormous potential to support economic growth and employment in South Africa. So far, the country’s focus has mainly been on contact centres, where it does not enjoy a comparative advantage. Competitive advantage is more likely to be found in back-office BPO: this paper specifically looks at potential opportunity in asset management BPO and related financial services.
The key drivers of this part of the outsourcing market, discusses the potential economic benefits, and provides a detailed assessment of the local and foreign companies currently engaged in BPO operations in South Africa. It reviews the key factors that influence the decision to be based in South Africa and provides an initial assessment of the potential of this segment of the BPO market.
Input for Work 2005 Second international Conference on Employment Creation in Development.pdfInput for Work 2005 Second international Conference on Employment Creation in DevelopmentJudith Streak
Streak provides an overview of social welfare budgets in South Africa. She starts by reviewing the intergovernmental financing responsibilities for social welfare, and provides the budget classification of social welfare spending at national and provincial level. The paper then reviews the trends in provincial social welfare budgets from 2004/05 to 2007/08, and highlights challenges to scaling up these budgets and creating work opportunities, including the need for provincial capacity building and appropriate institutional structures.
International Experience with Worker-Side and Employer-Side Wage and Employment Subsidies.pdfInternational Experience with Worker-Side and Employer-Side Wage and Employment SubsidiesC. Smith2006
This policy review summarises international experience with labour market interventions that aimed to improve employment, particularly among disadvantaged job seekers. These interventions include firm-side wage and employment subsidies, worker-side wage and employment subsidies, and job search assistance programmes. The review then assesses which policies are particularly relevant to South Africa’s unique labour market situation. Because active support for unemployed individuals have become an instrument of choice, there are numerous policy examples from which South Africa can learn.
International Policy Responses of Developing Countries to The Global Economic Crisis.pdfInternational Policy Responses of Developing Countries to The Global Economic CrisisHillary Joffe and Genesis Analytics2009
This paper was prepared as part of a series on the economic and employment impacts of the 2008 global financial crisis on South Africa.
Hawkins discusses the historical experience of financial crises, whether local or global. He then considers the impact on emerging markets, and particularly in relation to national and corporate strategies.
Leading indicators of Employment in South Africa.pdfLeading indicators of Employment in South AfricaRob Davies and Dirk van Seventer2009
Davies and van Seventer explore how an indicator might be constructed that can be used to predict employment. The paper assesses the various series that are used to construct the South African Reserve Bank’s leading, coincident and lagging indicators of the business cycle.
Leveraging Services for Growth Employment and Equity.pdfLeveraging Services for Growth Employment and EquityMiriam Altman2005
The January 2004 Cabinet Lekgotla adopted a mandate to review ways that services could be leveraged for growth, employment and equity. The HSRC was asked to support this process by identifying ways to optimise the services sector’s contribution to government’s 2014 targets of halving unemployment and poverty, and promoting growth. This paper reports on the first phase of this work, and entailed the preparation of a global contextualisation, a review of domestic thinking, a review of policy, and a policy gap analysis. Phase 2 focused on strategy building and deeper sector and policy design work, as well as stakeholder engagement
Liberalisation Trade in Services in South Africa  The Multilateral Dimension.pdfLiberalisation Trade in Services in South Africa The Multilateral DimensionIan Steuart2005
The services sector is an increasingly important dimension of South Africa’s economic development, in terms of both its contribution to growth and its export potential. While exposing the services sector to international competition has the potential to unleash significant gains, deep and justified concerns regarding unemployment, poverty alleviation and universal access to basic services have resulted in South Africa adopting a cautious approach to the progressive liberalisation of key services.
Manufacturing Employment and Import Dependence.pdfManufacturing Employment and Import DependenceRob Davies 2006
Davies assesses the potential and limitations of South Africa’s manufacturing sector through reduced import dependence. He explores two versions of the argument. The first suggests that it would be beneficial to reduce the imported component of inputs into manufacturing production. Imported inputs into manufacturing rose from 13.0% of gross output in 1993 to 15.9% in 2005, driven mainly by increases in the import intensity of manufacturing subsectors, rather than by shifts in production from low- to high-import intensity subsectors. This suggests the scope for reducing these intensities is limited
Policy Scan and Gap Analysis  Government initiatives to Promote Trade in Services.pdfPolicy Scan and Gap Analysis Government initiatives to Promote Trade in ServicesMarina J. Mayer2005
Services account for more than 70% of output and employment in the South African economy. Strategies are needed to ensure services contribute to dynamism in the economy. Stimulating trade in services is one means to enhance the contribution of the service industry to growth. In this paper, Mayer reviews and identifies gaps in the the South African policy environment for services trade and competitiveness.
Potential Attrition in Education.pdfPotential Attrition in EducationElsje Hall MA, with Miriam Altman PhD, Nkululeko Nkomo BA, Karl Peltzer PhD and Khangelani Zuma PhD2005
Any analysis of teacher attrition must assess workplace and labour market considerations. For example, dissatisfaction with the workplace can be an important inducement for teachers to seek alternative opportunities. The more teachers believe there are alternative opportunities, the less willing they might be to address workplace frustrations. The overall aim of this study (SOC_POL006) was to gain insight into the factors that determine the supply of and demand for educators in public schools. Reporting on the results obtained during a national survey of South African educators conducted in 2004, this particular component of the study focuses on educator attrition and the role played in attrition by job satisfaction, morale, workload and HIV/AIDS.
Potential Job Creation in The South African ICT Sector.pdfPotential Job Creation in The South African ICT SectorSandy Lowitt2012
This report is part of the Vision 2020 process of the Department of Communications. Lowitt analyses potential job creation in ICT, providing a demand-side analysis of ICT and broadband. She uses four categories of demand: private consumption (individuals), private investment (large and small firms), government demand, and trade demand (sale of ICT-enabled services). The ICT sector is dealt with as a separate sector, whose size depends on demand from these categories. Demand is calculated in terms of increased output and sales attributable to increased broadband access and lower ICT prices. This output is translated into direct and indirect job creation
Public Service Employment and Job Creation in South Africa.pdfPublic Service Employment and Job Creation in South AfricaEbrahim-Khalil Hassen and Miriam Altman2010
The public service is a significant source of employment in South Africa, accounting for about 13% of formal employment. Until recently, it played a diminishing role, dampening employment growth in the economy. What should its role be in employment creation? This is particularly important in the context of high structural unemployment and serious racial bias in the labour market.
The paper provides scenarios for future levels of employment in the public service until 2012/13. The proposals for expanding the public service aim to strengthen the link between efficiency (e.g. improved service delivery) and equity (e.g. employment for lower-skilled workers). It addresses a defining challenge: government needs to play a role in direct job creation, but the economic downturn will reduce its fiscal space. Consequently, proposals for expanding the public service need to provide strong evidence of improving equity and efficiency. The policy argument for expanding the public service is also improved when linked into government’s performance targets, providing a transparent mechanism to track performance.
The paper starts by discussing the appropriate size of the public service. It then reviews its size between 1995 and 2008, and analyses its skills composition, affirmative action and remuneration. These trends are explained with reference to budgets, collective bargaining and the public service reform project. Finally, the paper assesses policy options that together could be termed a ‘national public employment programme’.
Rationale for Conducting National Occupational Projections and How They Are Typically Undertaken.pdfRationale for Conducting National Occupational Projections and How They Are Typically UndertakenRob Wilson2004
Scaling Up Early Childhood Development (ECD) (0-4 Years) in South Africa 013.pdfScaling Up Early Childhood Development (ECD) (0-4 Years) in South Africa 013Linda Biersteker2008
This paper is one of a series developed to inform the Scaling Up ECD Services (0–4 years) Research Project, with the aim of improving child development and creating jobs.
Biersteker identifies the job hierarchies and career paths in ECD service provision and supervision; relates these to the career opportunities for low- and semi-skilled workers and the use of ECD for job creation and capacity building; and considers the location of these jobs, for example, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), local government, district offices, community-based organisations (CBOs) and small private businesses. It also reviews the range of pay scales and expectations; these include volunteerism, paying according to a public works stipend, and aligning with an extended pay scale (thereby treating the ECD services as a proper job rather than a special ‘make-work’ opportunity).
This is followed by an analysis of the implications for training and job hierarchies under the EPWP, the potential mass expansion of ECD, and how these align with the requirements of the NIP for ECD. Finally, the paper makes recommendations to government on developing the job hierarchy, service conditions, and how job creation initiatives could better address the envisaged mass expansion of the programme.

Stakeholder Mapping.pdfStakeholder MappingDr Miriam Altman and Karen Heese2005
As part of the Leveraging Services for Employment, Equity and Growth project, Heese provides a framework for government to engage with stakeholders in service industries in South Africa. To this end, she maps each of the subsectors in terms of the classification of the services sector utilised in this process.
The purpose of the maps is twofold. The first is to graphically outline the key stakeholders in each of the services sub-sectors. The ownership structure of each sub-sector is also mapped and key enablers with whom government should engage are highlighted. The second is to describe the structure of the sector and the role of key players, based on information from industry experts, research papers, market research, annual reports and McGregor's Africa database.
The Business of The Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP) in The Social Sector.pdfThe Business of The Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP) in The Social SectorOupa Ramachela2005
Ramachela provides a brief overview of the Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP) and its extension to the social sector. The paper sees the social sector as the cradle of development and growth, and the EPWP as one entry point to stimulate social capital, address delivery deficits, and move people out of poverty. The EPWP offers a significant opportunity to enhance the skills of people trapped in the second economy. It also has the potential to improve not only public service delivery, but also the delivery of private social services in the first economy. Unlike in the other sectors, the EPWP in the social sector is aimed at creating long-term work opportunities for low-skilled workers, especially women and youth.

The Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Employment  The Economy-Wide Effect of A Rand Appreciation.pdfThe Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Employment The Economy-Wide Effect of A Rand AppreciationStewart Ngandu2006
The volatility of the exchange rate is a particular concern for South Africa, since the country must dramatically expand sustainable employment while also raising value added in production. These objectives are not necessarily complementary in a minerals-exporting economy. This paper, part of an HSRC project on the relationship between exchange rates and employment (MACRO006), analyses the possible impact of an appreciation of the Rand on employment.
The Implications of The Global Economic Crisis for industrial Sectors in South Africa.pdfThe Implications of The Global Economic Crisis for industrial Sectors in South AfricaYaseen Jhaveri, Stephan Malherbe and Genna Robb2009
Throughout 2008 it seemed that the effects of the growing global financial crisis were largely passing South Africa by. By comparison with many developed countries, its financial sector and to a large extent its economy remained strong. However, since the start of 2009, the second-round effects have started to affect the economy, through substantially reduced international demand and the availability of capital. This created knock-on impacts domestically, and firms are increasingly feeling the effects.
The Institutional Underpinnings of The Unemployment-inflation Relationship  A Review Paper.pdfThe Institutional Underpinnings of The Unemployment-inflation Relationship A Review PaperJonathan Michie2003
In this working paper, Michie examines the institutional underpinnings in the relations between unemployment and inflation. This is a central question for policymakers in solving significant structural unemployment gaps: interventions to stimulate the economy may have inflationary impacts unless the institutional environment enables firms to invest and ultimately generate more employment.
The Job-Creating Potential of The Metered Taxi industry in South Africa s Urban Areas.pdfThe Job-Creating Potential of The Metered Taxi industry in South Africa s Urban AreasS. Lowitt2006
One of the aims of the HSRC’s Employment Growth and Development Initiative is to analyse economic diversification and identify potential future growth sectors, based on their growth potential and labour absorption capacity. One possible candidate is considered here – the metered taxi sector, which fits both these criteria well. This proposal provides a general introduction to the industry and its potential to grow and absorb labour. The aim is to catalyse a more intensive research and consultation process
The Potential Impact of The Global Financial Crisis on South Africa.pdfThe Potential Impact of The Global Financial Crisis on South AfricaNazmeera Moola and Sandra Gordon2009
The 2008 economic and financial crisis is more global than any financial turmoil during the past 60 years. Even though most emerging markets still have relatively healthy banking systems, they are feeling the effect of the global credit crisis far more acutely than they would have in the past.
The State of Employment and Unemployment in South Africa.pdfThe State of Employment and Unemployment in South AfricaMiriam Altman2003
Altman outlines trends in employment, underemployment and unemployment in South Africa, and explains possible causes and policy implications.
Net employment in South Africa has been stagnant or falling since the early 1980s, mainly because of factors related to the apartheid government’s policies of ‘separate development’.
The State of Employment.pdfThe State of EmploymentMiriam Altman2004
Altman considers the meaning of job creating versus jobless growth, and assesses the character of employment creation in South Africa. She then assesses the quality of these jobs and their contribution to household livelihoods to evaluate whether the economy is on a sustainable growth path. The possible contributors to rising unemployment and slow employment creation are also reviewed.
Trade in Services The Global Context.pdfTrade in Services The Global ContextMarina J. Mayer2005
Mayer provides a broad overview of global trends in trade in services. The survey of the magnitude and patterns of trade in services, together with an analysis of the drivers of such trade, provides a context for assessing South Africa’s current performance and future prospects in this area.
In contrast to goods, the vast majority of services are intangible, invisible and perishable, requiring simultaneous production and consumption. Over the past two decades, due to technological change and globalisation, services have become increasingly tradable. This poses both opportunities and threats for the developmental objectives of a middle-income developing country such as South Africa. For example, how can services trade contribute to the attainment of government’s objective of halving unemployment and poverty by 2014? Can import penetration in services sectors adversely affect the country’s growth prospects?
What makes a difference to childoutcomes in the period 0-4.pdfWhat makes a difference to childoutcomes in the period 0-4Andrew Dawes,Linda Biersteker and Margaret Irvine2008
This paper is one of a series developed to inform the Scaling Up ECD Services (0–4 years) Research Project, with the aim of improving child development and creating jobs.
Dawes et al. present the evidence for programmes effectively improve child outcomes in the years 0–4, looking at the populations, outcomes and interventions identified in the NIP. The focus is on the design of effective interventions to improve child development in vulnerable populations, with the ultimate goal of ensuring a sound physical and psychological foundation for health and development. The paper reviews the literature to ascertain the specific factors associated with programme effectiveness in ECD, and the key ingredients of successful interventions. It reviews majority country settings, but includes developed countries where appropriate.
The main objective is to identify the ingredients and design parameters of home-based and formal programmes associated with improvements in children’s development. Based on a Rapid Evidence Assessment, the paper summarises the key findings on what works best to improve early outcomes in the following areas: nutrition, early psychological development, parenting, early stimulation and child care (in the home and group settings), and systems that promote access to services. It does not consider interventions to improve child health other than those that increase parents’ awareness of factors that promote health and provide them with links to health services.

  
  
  
  
Synopsis
Administered Prices Study on Economic Inputs (Ports Rail and Water).pdfAdministered Prices Study on Economic Inputs (Ports Rail and Water)Unknown2008
This report examines the prices of goods and services provided by entities owned by the South African government in water, rail and ports. Prices in these three sectors are referred to as ‘administered’ due to the public ownership of the entities providing them. Each sector provides important economic inputs for firms and consumers in the rest of the economy. Their pricing behaviour therefore has a major influence on the competitiveness of the economy and on the alignment between the productive side of the economy under public ownership and government economic policy.
Administered Prices Study on Economic inputs Water Sector .pdfAdministered Prices Study on Economic inputs Water Sector Unknown2007
The water services and distribution sector component of the Nedlac Administered Prices Study on Economic Inputs sought to quantify the impact on investment and job creation of the pricing and quality of services set through administered pricing mechanisms. This component of the study covered municipal supplies of water to domestic, commercial and industrial consumers, and utility supplies to large industrial consumers by the trading units of the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry (DWAF) as well as water boards and related entities. Two companion reports examine the ports and rail sectors respectively.
Mineral Prices and The Exchange Rate  What Does The Literature Say.pdfMineral Prices and The Exchange Rate What Does The Literature SayS. Ngandu2005
This paper forms part of the HSRC’s project on exchange rates and employment (MACRO006), which seeks to understand the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on employment in South Africa. It reviews the literature on the relationship between commodity prices and the exchange rate, and its implications for labour-intensive export manufacturing. It focuses on the extent to which capital-intensive mineral exports can affect the exchange rate to the detriment of labour-intensive export manufacturing. The volatility of the exchange rate induced by fluctuating mineral prices has a direct impact on the competitiveness and hence the potential deindustrialisation of the manufacturing sector.
The Impact of Electricity Price increases and Rationing on The South African Economy The Potensial Energy Savings A Review.pdfThe Impact of Electricity Price increases and Rationing on The South African Economy The Potensial Energy Savings A ReviewDr Miriam Altman2009
Altman et al. highlight major developments and influences on energy efficiency in four sectors of the South African economy. The paper also reviews measures for a package of tools that government could use to stimulate energy efficiency in these sectors. These
The Nature and Dynamics of The Plastics  Paper and Glass Recycling Sectors.pdfThe Nature and Dynamics of The Plastics Paper and Glass Recycling SectorsSandra Lowitt2008
The purpose of this research programme, supported by the HSRC and the Departments of Environmental Affairs and Tourism and of Science and Technology, was to create the first economic database of plastics, glass and paper recycling activities in South Africa. These sectors have not been enumerated to date.
This report is a first, high-level analysis of the data obtained during a year-long primary data collection process. It provides a broad description of economic activity in the industry and the issues facing it. The datasets contain much additional information, and it is hoped that the creation of this database will stimulate significant research and analysis, which will ultimately improve the understanding of this poorly researched area of economic activity
  
  
  
  
Synopsis
A Review of Labour Markets in South Africa  Research Gaps  Labour Market Function and Policy in South Africa.pdfA Review of Labour Markets in South Africa Research Gaps Labour Market Function and Policy in South AfricaDr M. Altman2005
The SIDA–HSRC project to review research on the South African labour market identified a set of knowledge gaps, based on the seven overview papers prepared (INSERT LINK). Altman reviews these findings and identifies gaps for further research. The paper deals with the following: low-wage work, labour market regulation, wage formation, the role of the public sector, education and training, school-to-work transitions, HIV/AIDS in the labour market, active labour market policies, and labour statistics.
A Review of Labour Markets in South Africa References.pdfA Review of Labour Markets in South Africa ReferencesDr. M Altman2005
This paper contains the references for the HSRC’s labour market studies of 2005.
A Review of The South African Automobile assembly and Component Manufacturing Sector in The Context of HIV_Aids.pdfA Review of The South African Automobile assembly and Component Manufacturing Sector in The Context of HIV_AidsJ. Vass2003
This paper forms part of the HSRC’s research programme on the impact of HIV/Aids on critical economic sectors. The automotive sector has been described as a ‘star performer’ in the South African economy, given its drive towards global competitiveness and its recent growth in output, real fixed investment and export. It is the leading manufacturing sector, as well as the third largest contributor to national GDP. Vass provides a descriptive overview of the key trends and dynamics in the automotive assembly and component-manufacturing sector. Through exploring the dynamics internal to the sector, Vass develops measurement indicators for a forthcoming sero-prevalence survey and research.
Access to Essential Services  Education and Health.pdfAccess to Essential Services Education and HealthPundy Pillay Sizanang2005
A key impediment to growth in South Africa is the relative shortage of high-quality human capital, manifested as part of the unequal distribution of assets in the country. International evidence shows that an unequal distribution of assets, especially of human capital, hampers overall growth and disproportionately affects the income growth of the poor. Attaining optimal outcomes in education and health can have far-reaching benefits in terms of equality, growth and poverty reduction. But achieving satisfactory outcomes in these sectors also depends on the complementary provision of other services, particularly to poor communities. It is crucial for policymakers to recognise the linkages between education and health outcomes and the provision of clean water, adequate sanitation, cheap and accessible transport, and effective nutrition programmes.
An Overview of Preferential Procurement in South Africa Government initiatives and  private sector responses.docAn Overview of Preferential Procurement in South Africa Government initiatives and private sector responsesTracy van der Heijden2008
Fostering the development and growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is a key issue in increasing employment opportunities and raising personal incomes. In addition, supporting the growth of SMEs owned by previously disadvantaged groups, black women and young people is important for achieving a more equitable economy. However, given the structure of the formal economy in South Africa, which is dominated by large and well-established companies, barriers to entry for new SMEs owned by these target beneficiaries are significant.
One important way in which SMEs can enter the market is as suppliers to larger companies. A conscious focus by large private and public sector companies on procuring goods and services from smaller companies with a certain demographic profile – preferential procurement – can be a significant tool in increasing the number of sustainable small businesses. Closely aligned with the concept of preferential procurement is that of enterprise development. A successful enterprise development strategy can create sustainable PDI-owned businesses that may otherwise never have survived. The formation of sustainable PDI-owned companies is often viewed as the most important tool in improving equity and income.
Van der Heijden examines how preferential procurement is being implemented in corporate South Africa. Three companies in three very different sectors, with different customer profiles and different management approaches, are assessed to see how they have addressed the issue.
An Overview of Preferential Procurement in South Africa Government Initiatives and Private Sector Responses.pdfAn Overview of Preferential Procurement in South Africa Government Initiatives and Private Sector ResponsesTracy van der Heijden2008
Fostering the development and growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is a key issue in increasing employment opportunities and raising personal incomes. In addition, supporting the growth of SMEs owned by previously disadvantaged groups, black women and young people is important for achieving a more equitable economy. However, given the structure of the formal economy in South Africa, which is dominated by large and well-established companies, barriers to entry for new SMEs owned by these target beneficiaries are significant.
One important way in which SMEs can enter the market is as suppliers to larger companies. A conscious focus by large private and public sector companies on procuring goods and services from smaller companies with a certain demographic profile – preferential procurement – can be a significant tool in increasing the number of sustainable small businesses. Closely aligned with the concept of preferential procurement is that of enterprise development. A successful enterprise development strategy can create sustainable PDI-owned businesses that may otherwise never have survived. The formation of sustainable PDI-owned companies is often viewed as the most important tool in improving equity and income.
Career Guidance and Employment Services.pdfCareer Guidance and Employment ServicesDr R. du Toit2005
School-to-work transition, in a broader sense, is a comprehensive approach to educational programme development that aligns student goals with educational experiences and services. In a narrower sense, it is the process whereby young people move from full-time schooling to post-school activities, including post-secondary education, vocational training, community participation, and potential employment. The latter might take the form of casual work, fixed-term employment or labour market programmes. Labour market intermediation refers to the process of matching the supply of skills (both youth and adults) with the demand for such skills.
Earnings inequality in South Africa 1995-2003.pdfEarnings inequality in South Africa 1995-2003Ingrid Woolard and Chris Woolard2006
Woolard and Woolard use October Household Survey and Labour Force Survey data to establish whether the real earnings gap between highly skilled and low-skilled workers in the formal sector of the South African economy narrowed or widened between 1995 and 2003. It also assesses changes in the earnings gap between whites and other race groups, and between men and women in this period.
Education and Training.pdfEducation and TrainingP. Moleke2005
Moleke considers the effects of education and training on the labour market outcomes of participants. Education and training, referred to as human capital, explain differences in labour market status, occupational distributions and earnings. Given the positive benefits of education, it can be expected that individuals would want to acquire the maximum level of education they could afford. However, the decision to acquire education is influenced by other factors, such as ability. Training, particularly labour market-related training, complements education, enhances the human capital of individuals, and increases market skills. It also affects labour market outcomes, in so far as it increases mobility in the labour market, progression up the job ladder, and earnings.
Education and Youth Employment in Sub-Sahara Africa  Linkages and Policy Responses.pdfEducation and Youth Employment in Sub-Sahara Africa Linkages and Policy ResponsesDr. Miriam Altman and Volker Schoer Nimisha Rama2013
Young people in Africa find it increasingly difficult to transition into employment. Governments acknowledge the challenge of youth unemployment and underemployment and are looking for appropriate interventions. Investment in education is one of the main policy tools for addressing poverty and promoting economic growth. However, African countries grapple with a range of challenges. Many are near the frontier of how much they can spend on education, but are not achieving the desired outcomes. One aspect of this problem lies in the design of the education system and in resource allocation and incentives within each level. Another aspect relates to the allocation of resources across the different tiers – primary, secondary academic, secondary vocational, and various types of tertiary education. Then there is the question of private incentives – do individuals and households understand the returns to education and is education accessible to them? What are the hiring practices of firms? Why does Africa especially seem to have very slow school-to-work transitions? Are firms incentivised to train?
Education and Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa AERC Senior Policy Seminar on Youth Unemployment.pdfEducation and Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa AERC Senior Policy Seminar on Youth UnemploymentDr. Miriam Altman2013
Altman provides a broad overview of youth employment and education in sub-Saharan Africa. She compares the region to the rest of the world in terms of education status, and provides information on issues such as educational performance, the return to education, and gender gaps. This is a presentation to an AERC conference.
Employment Experiences of South African Graduates.pdfEmployment Experiences of South African GraduatesPercy Moleke2005
People with higher education enjoy a clear advantage in the labour market. However, this advantage is not experienced by all graduates – differentiations occur by race and gender. If graduates are regularly surveyed, a picture can be obtained of their entry into and progression through the labour market. A graduate tracking system can provide prospective and current students, employers and government with in-depth information on the graduate labour market.
Moleke presents the findings of a follow-up postal survey of 2 672 university graduates in South Africa, which aimed to gather qualitative and quantitative data on their experiences in the labour market. She reviews their employment experiences from 1990 to 1998.
First Employment Experiences of Graduates.pdfFirst Employment Experiences of GraduatesPercy Moleke
The HSRC studied the first employment experiences of South African graduates to identify trends in the local labour market for graduates over the period 1991–1995. Moleke reports on the study, first introducing the research methodology and giving a brief overview of the South African labour market. She then discusses the employment of graduates, the perceived benefits of higher education, and career guidance and occupational expectations.
How Different is the SA Labour Market International Perspectives and Parallels.pdfHow Different is the SA Labour Market International Perspectives and ParallelsG. Edgren2005
Half a century of apartheid left a deep imprint on all aspects of the South African labour market. In many ways, this leaves the country as a ‘special case’ in the field of labour market analysis, with large gaps in human development, significant underutilisation of the labour force, and difficult tensions in industrial relations. But the nineties brought another scourge, in the form of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. In view of these dramatic challenges, it is often hard to see useful parallels with developments in other countries.
ICT Skills at The intermediate Level in South Africa insights into Private Provision and Labour Market Demand.pdfICT Skills at The intermediate Level in South Africa insights into Private Provision and Labour Market DemandSalim Akoojee, Fabian Arends and Joan Roodt2007
Human capital in the ICT sector has become a key policy issue for innovation and economic growth. This makes it necessary to identify the skills currently available in the sector and to establish whether these are
in line with the requirements of the labour market. This research project assessed the demand for intermediate ICT skills in the South African labour market and, through a study of selected training providers, examined the potential of private provision of ICT to contribute to government’s national development objectives.

Identifying Opportunities to Drive Demand Report Prepared for The ICT Vision 2020 investment Work Stream.pdfIdentifying Opportunities to Drive Demand Report Prepared for The ICT Vision 2020 investment Work StreamDalberg Global Development Advisors2012
This report is part of the Vision 2020 process of the Department of Communications. It reports on a three-part analysis of the links between ICT investment and job creation in South Africa. It reviews of barriers to broadband usage, an assessment of demographic trends, and a global review of demand-side interventions.
The presentation suggests a three-pronged strategy for the country:
• Enabling individual digital citizenship: South Africa should build a critical mass of users by addressing two main barriers – affordability and content.
• Promoting the growth of key ICT-enabled industries and the efficiency of major industries: Two key users are particularly attractive – SMEs and government.
• Providing leadership in key ICT industries (content, services, and applications): Investment should be aligned with broader goals to develop a critical mass of users in the short term.
Inequalities in Higher Education and the Structure of the Labour Market.pdfInequalities in Higher Education and the Structure of the Labour MarketPercy Moleke2005
Higher education has a particularly important role to play in the overall development of the economy. Moleke examines the inequities in higher education in South Africa and their consequences in the labour market. She uses the HSRC’s research on the employment experiences of university graduates in South Africa, based on a sample of 2 672 university graduates who obtained their qualifications between 1990 and 1998 across all fields of study. Higher education has a particularly important role to play in the overall development of the economy. Moleke examines the inequities in higher education in South Africa and their consequences in the labour market. She uses the HSRC’s research on the employment experiences of university graduates in South Africa, based on a sample of 2 672 university graduates who obtained their qualifications between 1990 and 1998 across all fields of study.
Labour Market Projections a Review of international Best Practice.pdfLabour Market Projections a Review of international Best PracticeRob Wilson2004
Labour Market Regulation International and South African Perspectives.pdfLabour Market Regulation International and South African PerspectivesP. Benjamin2005
The first ten years of democracy in South Africa saw a significant programme of labour market regulation, as the new regime extended labour rights to employees and established structures to overcome apartheid deficits. However, trends towards informalisation have accelerated and a large proportion of the workforce now earn their livelihood through unprotected work in which employer power is unrestrained. This is an international trend that poses a challenge for labour and social protection. Effective regulation has to address new forms of workforce segmentation, and new models of the employment relationship in the developed world provide important insights into the possibilities for improving security and assisting workers in enhancing their employability.
Low Wage Work in South Africa.pdfLow Wage Work in South AfricaDr M. Altman2006
Altman examines the emerging character of the ‘working poor’ in South Africa and the implications for economic policy. The theme is particularly relevant for economies whose cost structures are not well aligned with promoting meaningful economic participation. The paper starts by setting the unemployment scene, showing that low-paid work is a greater burden if the labour market is loose – large numbers of people depend on fewer, low-paid earners. It then examines the shift from resources to services, given its effects on labour demand. It shows that South Africa leapt from being a resource-based economy to being a services economy. The paper then discusses the working poor in South Africa – who they are, what they earn, labour standards and job security.
Managing HIV in the Workplace Learning from SME's.pdfManaging HIV in the Workplace Learning from SME'sJocelyn Vass and Sizwe Phakathi2006
The effective management of HIV/AIDS in the workplace is critical to reducing the negative consequences of the epidemic for the economy. This study, which is part of the HSRC’s research programme on the impact of HIV/AIDS on the labour market, provides six case studies on the impact and management of HIV/AIDS
in the workplace of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The paper explores the extent to which HIV risk factors related to social capital and restructuring play a role in the HIV/AIDS burden of each firm. This provides useful baseline information for developing sero-prevalence survey indicators for future survey studies. The study also documents the experiences of SMEs in managing the HIV/AIDS burden and draws out possible lessons and best practices from within the SME sector. This aims to complement the current set of best practices, which are based mainly on the experiences of larger companies.
Medical Practitioners and Nurses.pdfMedical Practitioners and NursesElsje Hall and Johan Erasmus2003
Hall and Erasmus explore whether South Africa has enough medical practitioners and nurses to provide proper healthcare services to its citizens, and focuses on the demand for and supply of medical practitioners and nurses for the period 2001–2011.
In 2003, there were 29 655 medical practitioners in South Africa, at a rate of 65 physicians per 100 000 people. Approximately 60% were employed in the private health sector, at a ratio of 255:100 000. The remainder worked in the public health sector, where they provided medical care to 84% of the population, at a ratio of 29:100 000. The number of nurses was estimated at 155 484, at a ratio of 343:100 000, which compares favourably with the World Health Organisation’s minimum norm of 200:100 000. The ratio was expected to drop to 305:100 000 in the following decade, with 18 758 positions remaining unfilled.
Overview of the Labour Market Intelligence Partnership LMIP.pdfOverview of the Labour Market Intelligence Partnership LMIP2016
The Labour Market Intelligence Partnership
is a collaboration between government and a national research consortium that aims to build a credible institutional mechanism for skills planning and development in South Africa.
Policy Versus Reality a Preliminary assessment of The South African Code of Good Practice on HIV and Aids and Key aspects o.pdfPolicy Versus Reality a Preliminary assessment of The South African Code of Good Practice on HIV and Aids and Key aspects oJocelyn R.Vass2004
Vass explores the role and effectiveness of a specific HIV/AIDS policy response by the Department of Labour, the 2000 Code of Good Practice on Key Aspects of HIV/AIDS and Employment. As a qualitative study, she reflects on the experiences of intermediaries (AIDS management service providers and trade union HIV/AIDS coordinators), and points towards a set of broad trends in the development of HIV/AIDS policies and implementation of HIV/AIDS programmes in the workplace.
Projecting The Labour Supply to 2024.pdfProjecting The Labour Supply to 2024Charles Simkins and Helen Suzman2008
Skinner offers population projections from 2007 to 2024 for the HSRC Employment Scenarios. He uses the SPECTRUM model by population group, gender and age group, based on:
• The population composition reported by the Community Survey 2007
• Fertility as estimated by the Community Survey 2007
• Mortality as determined by background mortality and the effect of AIDS
• International migration.
The projection yielded estimates of the population by population group, gender and age group for each year between 2007 and 2024. Particular attention has been paid to projections for 2014 and 2024.
Skills demand and supply in South Africa.pdfSkills demand and supply in South AfricaReddy, V. Bhorat, H. Powell, M. Visser, M. and Arends, A2016
This report provides a holistic understanding of the current supply and demand for skills in South Africa, and represents one of the first attempts to analyse how the two interact to inform future skills policy to support an inclusive economic growth path. The analy cal approach used in this report represents a radical departure from manpower forecasting and attempts to understand the complexities and intricacies around how supply and demand interact, and the corresponding implications for reform.
South African Mining Sector Employment forecast to 2025.pdfSouth African Mining Sector Employment forecast to 2025Unknown2011
Cornelius focuses on trends in mining employment in South Africa, per sector, and includes a long-term forecast. The study provides a profile of employment in the sector from 1995 to 2010, and discusses input shocks (e.g. electricity supply) and the commodity boom. It then reviews the primary mining sectors – gold, platinum group metals, coal, diamonds, iron ore and manganese, and chrome. This is followed by a discussion of the drivers of labour demand and a forecast for the period 2012–2025 for the gold, platinum, coal and diamond mining sectors. The conclusion is that employment in the mining sector is likely to continue declining for the foreseeable future.
The Impact of HIV and AIDS on The Labour Market.pdfThe Impact of HIV and AIDS on The Labour MarketJ. Vass2005
The structure and functioning of the labour market are key mechanisms for addressing developmental inequities in South Africa. Much of the current analysis on labour market trends does not consider HIV/AIDS, which has a crucial impact on efforts to redress inequities, especially for historically disadvantaged and vulnerable groupings.
The Impact of HIV and AIDS.pdfThe Impact of HIV and AIDSJocelyn Vass2003
Vass assesses the impact of HIV/AIDS on the South African labour market. While a number of socio-economic factors affect human resources development, HIV/AIDS has a disproportionately negative impact on the economically active population, on Africans and on women. Thus it exacerbates existing structural inequalities. The impact is projected to occur unevenly across companies and sectors, and all skill levels will be negatively affected. Smaller losses are projected among highly skilled and skilled labour, with the largest losses projected among semi- and unskilled labour. Consequently, labour and skills replacement will be required, but this may prove complex. Under these circumstances, a reversal to capital substitution, poaching and the importation of foreign skilled labour may occur. HIV/AIDS will adversely affect the quantity and quality of education, and the achievement of equity targets in skills development, education and training may also be at risk. A systemic, inclusive and long-term approach is needed to redirect the trajectory of the HIV/AIDS impact on human resource development
The Labour Market Significance of The New Grade 9 Certificate.pdfThe Labour Market Significance of The New Grade 9 CertificateMartin Gustafsson Andrew Bartlett2008
This paper contributes to the HSRC’s employment scenarios project, and seeks to understand the link between education and employability. It focuses on a particular gap in the education path – the absence of a qualification below a matriculation certificate for the approximately 50% of school entrants who do not reach this level.
The Education White Paper of 1995 envisaged a General Education Certificate (GEC) for learners who completed compulsory schooling at the end of Grade 9. However, given the need to redesign virtually all education policies, not much progress has been made on the GEC policy.
The Relationship Between Labour Market Dynamics and HIV_AIDS Prevalence.pdfThe Relationship Between Labour Market Dynamics and HIV_AIDS PrevalenceJ. Vass2002
The impact of HIV/Aids on the South African labour market poses a potential threat to institutional and legislative transformation in the post-apartheid period. Vass assesses current research on the relationship between labour market dynamics and the prevalence of HIV/Aids. Studies on the impact of HIV/Aids often assume that the labour market is integrated. Results that illustrate differentiated HIV/Aids prevalence for race, gender and skill levels, for instance, tend to conclude that these stem from differences in society, without factoring in the nature of the labour market. However, the South African labour market is highly segmented. Since HIV/Aids disproportionately affects the economically active population, the interrelationship between labour market inequalities and segmentation as a risk indicator for HIV/Aids is particularly relevant.
The Role of Business in Supporting Youth Transitions Concept Note Developed for BUSA.pdfThe Role of Business in Supporting Youth Transitions Concept Note Developed for BUSADr. Miriam Altman and Carmel Marock-Singizi2013
This report was prepared for Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) to support its engagements on youth unemployment. In particular, it reflects on the potential of the private sector to support the youth employment initiatives being implemented by government. The programmes reviewed include:
• Skills development (linked to education and training) and/or internship programmes
• Work readiness and placement programmes
• Small business development
• Employment creation and sustainable livelihoods.
The private sector is already engaged with most of these programmes to varying degrees. This report suggests ways that these initiatives could be expanded or where private sector engagement could be improved to enhance their impact.
The State of Labour Market Deracialisation.pdfThe State of Labour Market DeracialisationPercy Moleke2005
Moleke looks at the racial skills distribution in the labour market. She finds that deracialisation is happening but the pace is slow and uneven across sectors. An attempt is made to identify some of the reasons for this problem. While the reasons are not weighted in terms of importance, the need to focus on education is emphasised. She also argues that the apparent lack of an integrated and coherent approach to human resource development renders the equity laws and regulations powerless and ineffective.
The State of the Labour Market in Contemporary South Africa.pdfThe State of the Labour Market in Contemporary South AfricaPercy Moleke2003
The state of the labour market in South Africa is a reflection of the crippling legacies of apartheid and as such is a major challenge confronting the government. There are pockets of progress, but progress is limited relative to the magnitude of the inherited inequities:
• Whites still dominate high-level occupations; Africans and women are concentrated in secondary sectors.
• There has been little change in the racial and gender composition within occupations.
• On-the-job training, promotions and recruitment are still skewed towards whites and are concentrated at higher levels. 

• The beneficiaries of training are mostly whites, who form the majority of staff at higher levels.
• Education and training is still supply-led. There is little, if any, labour market information on the demand for skills. 

• The lack of basic education is a major challenge. Numeracy and literacy affect access to good jobs and, hence, training. 

These problems need to be tackled both within and outside the labour market. High unemployment rates and the marginalisation of Africans and women need to be addressed through active labour market policies, including basic literacy and numeracy training, job-search assistance, vocational guidance and counselling. Active labour market policies would improve the employability of the unemployed, increase the efficiency of job searching, secure job outcomes, and improve equity. These services cannot be provided by private enterprise, and are therefore the responsibility of government.
The State of Youth  Labour Market Status and  Policy Challenges.pdfThe State of Youth Labour Market Status and Policy ChallengesDr. Miriam Altman and Fébé Potgieter-Gqubule2009
South Africa’s demographic profile and its youth bulge provide a unique opportunity for making substantial progress over the next decade or so with reducing unemployment and poverty, and fundamentally changing the structure of the labour force. Doing this, however, requires deliberate policies and interventions to address the needs of young people in the post-apartheid labour markets.
Altman and Potgieter examine reasons for focusing on the youth labour market, including the need to avoid creating new generations of long-term unemployed people. More specifically, they assess how investment in young people can help South Africa benefit from the demographic dividend of an expanded labour force and lower dependency rates.
Vision 2020 Investment Work-Stream Executive Summary.pdfVision 2020 Investment Work-Stream Executive SummaryMiriam Altman, Micheal Kleeman, Sandy Lowitt2012
This report is part of the Vision 2020 process of the Department of Communications. It focuses on how to achieve investment towards 100% broadband and how to optimise job creation impacts. It assessed the supply side (infrastructure investment) as well as the demand side (factors that increase data use). The country case studies helped to contextualise South Africa’s efforts and shape an appropriate vision. The final component was a realistic analysis of where jobs might be sourced, whether directly or indirectly. Four reports were prepared: (Might be useful to add links to these reports on the site)
• Capital Investment and Policy Dimensions
• Identifying Opportunities to Drive Demand for ICT services
• Potential for Job Creation in the SA ICT Sector
• Country Case Studies.
Wage Trends and Dynamics.pdfWage Trends and DynamicsDr M. Altman2005
Wages play an important role in the broader economy from both efficiency and equity perspectives. Wage formation also lies at the heart of a power play between workers and employers. As part of a broader labour market review, Altman considers the state of knowledge on wage determination in South Africa. She assesses whether wage setting is appropriate for the country’s development needs; whether wages are set within a competitive framework; and the role of institutions such as unions, bargaining councils and minimum wages.
World Bank Household Surveys for The Africa Migration Project.pdfWorld Bank Household Surveys for The Africa Migration ProjectMiriam Altman2010
The HSRC carried out the Migration and Remittances Survey in South Africa for the World Bank, in collaboration with the African Development Bank.
As do many other African countries, South Africa lacks reliable data on migrants and on the flows of resources that accompany the movement of people, mainly because a large proportion of migrants are in the country illegally. A special effort was therefore made to design a household survey that would cover sufficient numbers of migrants and still conform to the principles of probability sampling. The survey gives a representative picture of migration in two provinces, Limpopo and Gauteng, which should be fairly reflective of migration behaviour and impact in South Africa.
Youth Labour Market Challenges in South Africa.pdfYouth Labour Market Challenges in South AfricaMiriam Altman2007
Altman identifies labour market challenges facing South African youth, in view of the high chance of long-term unemployment among young people. She assesses labour market dynamics, questioning whether the economy is creating low-skill jobs, whether education improves people’s chances in the labour market, and whether graduate unemployment is a problem because young people study inappropriate subject areas. She also looks at the effect of weak networks, limited work experience and poor health status on young people’s participation in the labour market.
  
  
  
  
Synopsis
Access to Essential Services Education Health Water and Sanitation.pdfAccess to Essential Services Education Health Water and SanitationPundy PILLAY and Sizanang 2005
As the Millennium Development Compact argues, the first cluster of policies required for countries to break out of poverty traps involve investing in health and education. These investments contribute to growth and human development. Moreover, education, health, nutrition, and water and sanitation complement each other, with investments in any one contributing to better outcomes in the others. Policymakers thus need to recognise the synergies among the many aspects of human development. This notion of synergies among social investments is central to reducing hunger, malnutrition, disease and illiteracy, and advancing human capabilities.
Engeneers and Technicians.pdfEngeneers and TechniciansGrove Steyn and Reza C. Daniels2003
Steyn and Daniels evaluate the labour market for engineers and technicians, looking at two key themes: the demand for engineers and technicians in the labour market, and the supply of engineering skills. Employment trends, occupational shifts and projected demand are evaluated, as well as the responsiveness of tertiary institutions to changes in the structure of demand.
ICT and Associated Professionals.pdfICT and Associated ProfessionalsPercy Moleke, Andrew Paterson and Juan Roodt2003
Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have played a major role in shaping employment growth in the developed world, especially in the services sectors. In developing contexts, considerable importance is attached to the need to develop the human resources for both the production and consumption of ICT-based products and services.
Moleke et al. consider factors affecting the supply and demand of ICT workers in South Africa. In the case of training supply, the analysis reveals that only a small proportion of learners graduating from the schooling system have received formal tuition in ICT or have used computers in the process of learning. At the post-school level, private training organisations provide the bulk of focused professional training.
Impact of Transport Pricing in South Africa on Freight Transport Costs.pdfImpact of Transport Pricing in South Africa on Freight Transport CostsFrancois Botes2006
Freight transport cost is one of the core factors that determine product prices, and it has a direct impact on the competitive advantage of South African goods in local and international markets. Inefficiencies in the transport sector, which lead to high freight transport cost, can restrict economic growth and job creation. It is therefore important to understand the factors that affect freight transport cost in order to assess the gap between actual and economically efficient transport costs.
Prices investment and Efficiency on The Railways A Sectoral Review of Efficiencies in Administered Pricing in South Africa.pdfPrices investment and Efficiency on The Railways A Sectoral Review of Efficiencies in Administered Pricing in South AfricaUnknown2007
There has been little change to the operational structure of the South African rail industry over the past century. It remains a state-owned monopoly, run as a division of the same entity that houses the ports. Despite attempts to introduce greater commercial discipline in the 1980s, the industry is still only intermittently profitable and seems to be cross-subsidised via the high returns achieved in Transnet’s ports division.
Submission to NERSA Comments on The MYPD 3 Application.pdfSubmission to NERSA Comments on The MYPD 3 ApplicationDr Miriam Altman2013
This paper is a submission to NERSA in respect of the MYPD3. It follows two earlier reports in respect of the MYPD1 & 2 (INSERT LINKS TO INFRA02 AND 04). Altman provides background to the MYPD3, followed by comments and recommendations on the price path, municipal pricing, Eskom’s viability, and the potential impact of the proposed electricity prices on employment and the economy.
The Economic influence of infrastructural Expenditure a Multiplier Decomposition and Structural Path Analysis.pdfThe Economic influence of infrastructural Expenditure a Multiplier Decomposition and Structural Path AnalysisAndres Garcia, Channing Arndt, Stewart Ngandu2009
Garcia et al. explore the use of structural path analysis in assessing the economic impact of the South African government’s planned infrastructural programme of R787 billion. The construction sector is large enough to accommodate a substantial stimulus and has significant linkages with other production activities and households at all income levels.
The Economy-Wide Effects of Price-Reducing Reforms in infrastructure Services in South Africa.pdfThe Economy-Wide Effects of Price-Reducing Reforms in infrastructure Services in South AfricaR. Davies D.E.N. van Seventer2006
Prices of infrastructure services in South Africa may be higher than in other countries because of imperfect competition, non-tariff barriers to trade, or inefficiencies in production. A static computerised general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyse the economy-wide effects of reducing telecommunications and transport prices by reforming each of these three factors.
The Production of High Level Science Engineering and Technology Skills.pdfThe Production of High Level Science Engineering and Technology SkillsNick TAYLOR2008
The production of high-level science, engineering and technology (SET) skills is a critical supply-side factor enabling or constraining the growth of industrial economies. Taylor uses the production of graduate engineers by South African universities as a key indicator of the capacity of the education system to deliver SET skills. It argues that the production of engineers is severely constrained by the limited capacity of secondary schools to deliver matriculants with higher-grade qualifications in mathematics and of primary schools to develop an adequate foundation in literacy and numeracy. Government aims to address this problem in the long run by improving the quality of primary schooling. Through the Dinaledi project, it also aims to ensure a short-term improvement in the supply of high-quality matriculants to the higher education system. This paper looks at the role of Dinaledi, its impact to date, and the prospects for its expansion.
  
  
  
  
Synopsis
Baseline Information on Poverty in Tshwane.pdfBaseline Information on Poverty in TshwaneJ.C. Erasmus and G. Weir-Smith2003
Welfare and safety nets are an integral part of the government’s response to poverty and inequality. The Division: Integrated Community Development in the Tshwane Metropolitan Council aims to ensure that the needs of women, children, youth, people with disabilities and older person are catered for in an integrated manner. The division commissioned the HSRC to compile a profile of poverty in the different wards of Tshwane.
Broadband for South Africa Capital Investment and Policy Dimensions.pdfBroadband for South Africa Capital Investment and Policy DimensionsMichael Kleeman2012
In this report, part of the Vision 2020 process of the Department of Communications, Kleeman focuses on the investments required to achieve 100% broadband coverage. He uses case studies of Malaysia, Brazil, Korea, Ghana and Kenya, and sets out the
investment required for national broadband, alternative forms of access, the potential role of government, and different investment models.
Country Case Studies Report Prepared for The ICT Vision 2020 investment Work Stream.pdfCountry Case Studies Report Prepared for The ICT Vision 2020 investment Work StreamDalberg Global Development Advisors2012
South Africa’s aspiration for 2020 is to achieve 100% broadband coverage, while maximising both economic and employment growth. A number of paths can be followed to achieve this target: enabling digital citizens, supporting the industry, and building global leadership in ICT products and services. These dimensions are not sequential. For example, India was not a global leader in creating digital citizenship; rather, it achieved success in building service industries.
This report is part of the Vision 2020 process of the Department of Communications. It reviews a number of countries that exemplify the three approaches and are in some way comparable to South Africa. Country peer groups were identified in order to set the appropriate targets for 2020 and learn lessons for driving growth, impact and investment. Three categories of peers were identified: those that a decade ago were comparable to South Africa today, in terms of both socio-economic and legacy infrastructure; those that are largely comparable, but less pronounced; and other African countries. Country peers include: Bolivia, Colombia, Latvia, Lithuania, Mexico, Philippines, Brazil, Malaysia, India, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria. Comparatively, these countries outperformed South Africa and offer lessons in terms of the policies that helped drive the growth of ICT.
Evaluation of The Sectoral Impact of HIV_Aids in South Africa a Methodological Review.pdfEvaluation of The Sectoral Impact of HIV_Aids in South Africa a Methodological ReviewA.M. van den Heever, Miriam Altman and Joycelyn Bass2003
The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the employment environment in South Africa is largely unknown, with little in the way of reliable information from actual surveys. The few prevalence surveys performed in the country yield varying estimates of the overall impact. Furthermore, little can be usefully extrapolated from these surveys.
HIV_AIDS Prevalence Among South African Health Workers.pdfHIV_AIDS Prevalence Among South African Health WorkersO Shisana, E J Hall, R Maluleke, J Chauveau, C Schwabe2004
Studies on HIV prevalence among health workers usually focus on occupational exposure to HIV, but little is known about the overall prevalence of HIV in this group. The aim of this study is to determine HIV prevalence among South African health workers.
Horizon Scanning in South Africa  Crime and Violence Governance Citizenship and Social Cohesion.pdfHorizon Scanning in South Africa Crime and Violence Governance Citizenship and Social CohesionSuren Pillay2007
Violent crime in South Africa is amongst the highest in the world. Violence most
affects black South Africans who live in mega-townships (which are mostly poverty
stricken) in a society with one of the highest rates of inequality and unemployment in
the world. How we respond to this violence will determine whether South Africa
becomes a society, like Brazil, where the poor live in self-governing, isolated ghettos
and the rich live in fear in gated communities, or whether it becomes a society where
citizens feel safe and secure as equitable beneficiaries of citizenship.
Horizon Scanning in South Africa  Health and HIV and AIDS.pdfHorizon Scanning in South Africa Health and HIV and AIDSDesiree M. Daniels2007
South Africa has a mature HIV and AIDS epidemic, with 11% of the population having been infected. A review of possible scenarios provides insight into the outlook towards 2030. The Live the Future scenarios discussed here were based on two sets of branching points – who has the power, and what their goals are. Summer is the best-case scenario and involves government spearheading a strong, integrated and collaborative response to HIV and AIDS by focusing on prevention and on development needs. In this case, adult prevalence could drop from 18% in Winter to 7%. An estimated 5.9 million new infections could be averted between 2005 and 2025, as could some 2.5 million AIDS-related deaths. Public health sector costs are, however, highest in Summer, as money is spent on the overall improvement of the public health system so that everyone benefits in the long run.
Horizon Scanning in South Africa  Migration and Demographics.pdfHorizon Scanning in South Africa Migration and DemographicsCatherine Cross2007
South Africa’s anti-poverty policy strives to place the urbanising poor into serviced housing and to bring the poor already living in slum conditions into decent shelters. This commitment to preventing and reversing the spread of shack settlements through housing and infrastructure delivery is the central thrust of the current housing policy, and South Africa has been prepared to spend heavily to obtain the planned results. To a large extent, this anti-poverty policy is a direct response to the perceived risks of migration and urbanisation. However, how these policies are implemented will have feedback effects on migration prospects, and a number of uncertainties remain in this regard.
Horizon Scanning in South Africa  The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Poor Households.pdfHorizon Scanning in South Africa The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Poor HouseholdsJohn Seager and Nthabiseng Mohlakoana2007
International panels have concluded that human-induced climate change is an irrefutable fact. However, despite the pleas for action to mitigate global warming, there is compelling evidence that the climate will get hotter and more variable long before the current trend can be reversed, and there is thus a need to adapt to climate change.
Literature Review of The Role of Economic Powerhouses in Regional Development Lessons in South Africa for Africa.pdfLiterature Review of The Role of Economic Powerhouses in Regional Development Lessons in South Africa for AfricaKaren Heese, Kevin Allan, George Masiwa, Fiona Melrose2005
Heese explores the role of countries that play a pivotal role in their region, with the aim of identifying lessons for South Africa’s role in southern Africa.
Literature Review of The Role of Economic Powerhouses in Regional Development.pdfLiterature Review of The Role of Economic Powerhouses in Regional DevelopmentKaren Heese, Kevin Allan, George Masiwa, Fiona Melrose2005
Heese explores the role of countries that play a pivotal role in their region, with the aim of identifying lessons for South Africa’s role in southern Africa.
National Survey of Health Personnel, Ambulatory and Hospitalised Patients and Health Facilities, 2002.pdfNational Survey of Health Personnel, Ambulatory and Hospitalised Patients and Health Facilities, 2002O Shisana, E Hall, KR Maluleke,  DJ Stoker,  C Schwabe,  M Colvin,  J Chauveau , C Botha,  T Gumede, H Fomundam,  N Shaikh, T Rehle,  E Udjo,  D Gisselquist 2003
South Africa is estimated to have the highest number of people living with HIV/AIDS in the world. Given the impact of HIV/AIDS on society, and the need for policies on assisting those living with the disease, the HSRC and the National School of Public Health at the Medical University of South Africa (MEDUNSA) conducted a series of studies to generate empirical data to inform planning and management of HIV/AIDS.
Overview of industrial Policy.pdfOverview of industrial PolicyMiriam Altman, Marina Mayer2003
Altman and Mayer analyse the impact of South Africa’s industrial policy on the demand for labour. The paper shows that industrial development has historically been driven by minerals extraction and import substitution, overlain by apartheid policies that excluded the majority of the population from the economy. This entrenched a growth path characterised by capital-intensive production processes, a paucity of skilled labour, and exceptionally high levels of unemployment The post-1994 period has seen a radical shift from the protectionist policies of the past. Trade liberalisation and supply-side policies have improved the competitiveness of manufactured exports. However, high levels of unemployment persist among unskilled and semi-skilled workers, as do high levels of inequality
Overview of The Economy and Economic Policy.pdfOverview of The Economy and Economic PolicySandy Lowitt, Miriam Altman2008
Lowitt and Altman provide a high-level review of the economy’s performance and key policy development in the period 2001–2003. The focus is on economic performance and
policy in relation to the demand for labour, and hence human resource development. From a performance perspective, the chapter shows that economic growth was resilient despite a global slowdown and dramatic currency fluctuations. From a policy perspective, it shows that despite policy deepening and some expansion of direct government policies, the growth model adopted in 1994 remains fundamentally unchanged. The conclusion of the chapter is that the high-skills, technology-intensive growth path supported by government will fail to address unemployment, unless human resource development initiatives can bridge the gap between the skills profile of the unemployed and the skills demanded by this economic growth path.
Overview of The Policy and institutional Landscape for Enterprise Development and Preferential Procurement in South Africa.pdfOverview of The Policy and institutional Landscape for Enterprise Development and Preferential Procurement in South AfricaDr Ven Pillay and Dr Sean Phillips2009
Pillay and Phillips review the South African policy and institutional landscape for preferential procurement and enterprise development. It focuses on the use of these two BBBEE Code elements in broader socio-economic development. The various Acts, strategies, policies and industry sector charters all have a common goal: empowering previously disadvantaged individuals through meaningful participation in the economy. However, the frameworks that are meant to support enterprise development and preferential procurement also have the potential to create confusion. This paper reveals various gaps in and/or barriers to their implementation and the achievement of their socio-economic goals. The frameworks are not clearly linked, and it is unclear how they support each other and facilitate initiatives to achieve development goals. There are also no guidelines on how enterprise development and preferential procurement can be achieved in the private sector. From a developing enterprise perspective, regulatory and compliance requirements that impede growth and job creation and have negative (unintended) consequences should be addressed. Strategies are also needed to address the needs of women and people living with disabilities.
Policy Options to Leverage The System of Social Grants for Improved Access to Economic Opportunity.pdfPolicy Options to Leverage The System of Social Grants for Improved Access to Economic OpportunityDr. Miriam Altman and Gerard Boyce2008
The distribution of social grants in South Africa expanded considerably between 2001 and 2007. However, in a context of high unemployment, there is concern that unemployed household members depend on grants that are meant to target children, the aged or disabled. Thus grants are spread thinly, dramatically reducing their contribution to the intended beneficiaries. Moreover, there have been concerns that grants may disincentivise some adults from searching for work. Finally, there is concern about the pressure the grants put on the fiscus.
Presentation to The Work Conference Developmental Social Welfare Roundtable.pdfPresentation to The Work Conference Developmental Social Welfare RoundtableDr. Miriam Altman2005
Altman provides a brief overview of employment in public employment programmes in South Africa, with a special emphasis on the potential for scaling up employment through social development (especially early childhood development) and infrastructure programmes.

Review of Regulation in South Africa.pdfReview of Regulation in South AfricaMarina J. Mayer and Donald Onyango2005
Domestic regulation is central to trade in services, increasing the competitiveness of services sub-sectors, and achieving social aims. It can both be a barrier to trade and a policy instrument for addressing market failure in the form of monopoly, asymmetric information and externalities. Regulation also plays a pivotal role in ensuring that the poor are able to access essential services.
Mayer and Onyango offer a comprehensive review of regulation across all services sub-sectors. In the realm of services trade, it is domestic regulation (rather than tariffs) that constitute barriers to trade. In addition, regulation is the key lever to enhance the competitiveness of backbone infrastructure and promote access to essential services for the poor.
Too often, regulation is determined and managed on a sector-by-sector basis, rather than with an eye to cross-sector implications and learning. This paper therefore identifies cross-cutting and sector gaps in both research and policy in order to guide the work of the interdepartmental task teams on Leveraging Services for Growth, Employment and Equity.
Social Grant for Youth – Some Policy Options  Framework on Social Security for Youth in South Africa.pdfSocial Grant for Youth – Some Policy Options Framework on Social Security for Youth in South AfricaMiriam Altman, Zita Mokomane, Gemma Wight, Gerard Boyce2012
South African youth experience extremely high levels of unemployment and poverty. Currently there is no social assistance for low-income young adults, unless they are disabled. Interventions are needed that can achieve widespread poverty alleviation, as well as facilitate economic participation to improve lifelong earnings. Altman et al. consider six examples of social security policy options, including five grants. The grants range from an unconditional non-means-tested grant for young people to a conditional grant for young people in training or education, to an ‘opportunities voucher’ that is administered through the social security system but paid to organisations offering education or work opportunities to young people. Using a tax and benefit micro-simulation model to simulate the five grants, the paper estimates the potential numbers reached and the cost, as well as the impact of these six options on poverty.
Social income in South Africa an Economy Marred By High Unemployment Poverty and Extreme inequality.pdfSocial income in South Africa an Economy Marred By High Unemployment Poverty and Extreme inequalityCharles METH2008
Disagreements about the severity of poverty and inequality in South Africa have stimulated debate on the social wage. Given extreme measurement difficulties, not much reliance can be placed on existing attempts to value the social wage. This paper proposes that income poverty measures be augmented to consider the impact of social spending on disposable income.
Social Security for Young People Amidst High Poverty and Unemployment  Some Policy Options for South Africa.pdfSocial Security for Young People Amidst High Poverty and Unemployment Some Policy Options for South AfricaMiriam Altman, Zitha Mokomane and Gemma Wright2014
South African youth experience extremely high levels of unemployment and poverty. Currently there is no social assistance for low-income young adults, unless they are disabled. Interventions are needed that can achieve widespread poverty alleviation, as well as facilitate economic participation to improve lifelong earnings. This article considers six examples of social security policy options, including five grants. The grants range from an unconditional non-means-tested grant for young people to a conditional grant for young people in training or education, to an ‘opportunities voucher’ that is administered through the social security system but paid to organisations offering education or work opportunities to young people. Using a tax and benefit micro-simulation model to simulate the five grants, the paper estimates the potential numbers reached and the cost, as well as the impact of these six options on poverty.
The Global Context for Social Development Programmes Early Childhood Development.pdfThe Global Context for Social Development Programmes Early Childhood DevelopmentIsaivani Hyman and Prof Rose September2005
Hyman et al. investigate the global context for such programmes, with a specific focus on four evolving programme areas: 1) early childhood development, 2) food and nutrition, 3) community- and home-based care, and 4) community development workers. The paper draws on a literature review of international research, although there were relatively few comparative international studies and limited information on the employment creation potential of particular social development programmes.
The State of Youth in South Africa  A Demographic Perspective.pdfThe State of Youth in South Africa A Demographic PerspectiveM.B. Makiwane and G.C. Chimere-Dan2009
An important change in the profile of the South African youth population in the past few decades is their increasing share of the national population – from 17.9% in 1960 to 20.5% in 2009. This trend is likely to continue into the next decade, with a significant reversal expected from about 2020s. The size and trend in the youth population have many implications for socioeconomic development. The issues are more complex than the simplistic neo-Malthusian approach that blames population growth for most national social and economic problems. From a policy standpoint, having a relatively large number of people in the active working ages can be a demographic asset. But the potential economic benefit of the young population can only be realised if they are healthy, well-educated, have a good economic environment, and live in a stable and predictable political environment.
The State of Youth in South Africa  Is The Health Status of Youth Improving.pdfThe State of Youth in South Africa Is The Health Status of Youth ImprovingGolda C. Chimere-Dan and MB Makiwane2009
This paper examines the health status of South African youth in the past 15 years, using available quantitative data. Specific areas of interest include youth disability, substance abuse, sexual and reproductive behaviour, and HIV and AIDS. The paper also assesses the pattern of health status implied in official statistics on mortality among the youth.
The State of Youth in South Africa  Social Dynamics.pdfThe State of Youth in South Africa Social DynamicsFébé Potgieter-Gqubule and Nonkululeko Ngcobo2009
The issue of social cohesion is complex and multi-faceted. This paper examines five aspects of the context in which the current generation of young people find themselves:
• Material well-being, including access to basic services, poverty and unemployment, education and health

• Socialisation of young people, focusing on the family, schools and places of religion
• Youth culture and identity
• Participation of young people in society, including elections, community and social organisations, social networking and sport 

• Safety and security, including issues of youth and crime, as both victims and perpetrators.
Tshwane Centres of Excellence in Policy innovation  Early Childhood Development Services in Tshwane Scoping Study Findings.pdfTshwane Centres of Excellence in Policy innovation Early Childhood Development Services in Tshwane Scoping Study FindingsDr. Miriam Altman2009
The HSRC and Tshwane Municipality are partnering to design and test policy and programme innovations for enhanced developmental outcomes for children under five years of age. The HSRC’s work on early childhood development (ECD) is part of a larger policy research programme on Scaling Up ECD service delivery, which was initiated by the HSRC in partnership with the Interdepartmental Committee on ECD and the Director General’s Social Cluster. The purpose of the programme is to ensure better developmental outcomes for children aged 0–4 years and expand employment opportunities in the ECD sector by improving the evidence base supporting government’s implementation of ECD.
Volatility of The Real Exchange Rate of The Rand 1990 - 2004.pdfVolatility of The Real Exchange Rate of The Rand 1990 - 2004Duncan Hodge2005
This paper forms part of the HSRC’s project on exchange rates and employment (MACRO006), which seeks to understand the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on employment in South Africa. It serves as a preliminary, qualitative study of the volatility of the rand. Hodge starts by explaining the nature of the foreign exchange market, and then discusses how speculation can occur in this market, even though such activities are prohibited by exchange controls.
  
  
  
  
Synopsis
A Comparison of The Old and New Weights of The LFS Data  2000-2005.pdfA Comparison of The Old and New Weights of The LFS Data 2000-2005C. Woolard I. Woolard2005
Woolard and Woolard compare the population weights from the original Labour Force Survey (LFS) data sets released by Statistics South Africa with the reweighted data sets released in September 2005. Some conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the data for the generation of nuanced statistics.
The data was drawn from LFS2, LFS4, LFS6, LFS8, LFS10 and LF11 (September 2000–2004 and March 2005).
In general, the note shows that the trends in broad variables over time are much smoother using the reweighted data than those obtained using the original data. The trends in derived variables are therefore much more plausible. This, however, overlies some subtle differences in the two sets of data, and the confidence intervals are significantly enlarged.
Administered Prices Study on Economic inputs Ports Sector.pdfAdministered Prices Study on Economic inputs Ports SectorUnknown2007
Improvements to the competitiveness of commercial transport systems in South Africa will significantly boost economic and employment growth, given the high concentration of economic activity on the inland plateau, the sensitivity of foreign trade to freight cost, and the distance to market of South Africa’s major trading partners. Transport is largely shaped by government, through both policy and the operations of state-owned enterprises.
Comment on Eskom s Proposal for Price increase in 2008 and 9.pdfComment on Eskom s Proposal for Price increase in 2008 and 9Dr. Miriam Altman2008
This is a submission made to NERSA in respect of its MYPD review. Eskom is seeking additional price increases above the 14.2% already approved, that is, a 100% real increase over two years.
Comment on Eskoms MYPD 2 Proposal.pdfComment on Eskoms MYPD 2 ProposalDr. Miriam Altman, Howard Harris, Dave Fleming and Prof. Rob Davis2009
This is a submission to NERSA in respect of the MYPD2. Eskom applied to NERSA in respect of the second round of a three-year Multi-Year Price Determination (MYPD2) for the period 2010/11–2012/13. Its initial submission in September 2009 requested a 45% nominal increase in each of the three years. A second application was submitted in November 2009, reducing this request to 35% a year for three years, then rising by 13% per year for two years, based on revised assumptions.
Economic Behaviour in South Africas informal Economy.pdfEconomic Behaviour in South Africas informal EconomyImraan Valodia, Rob Davis, Miriam Altman, James Thurlow2007
This report contributes to a larger project of the HSRC, the School of Development Studies and IFPRI, which seeks to understand the competitive behaviour of informal firms in a growing economy. The main components of the project are a background conceptual paper; a social accounting matrix (SAM) that explores the relationship between the formal and informal economies in South Africa; an experimental computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates characteristics specific to the informal economy; and a pilot survey of the informal economy.
Formal-informal Economy Linkages  Some Conceptual and Empirical Issues.pdfFormal-informal Economy Linkages Some Conceptual and Empirical IssuesI. Valodia and R. Devey2006
This report contributes to a larger project that seeks to understand the competitive behaviour of informal firms in a growing economy. Valodia et al. explore the idea of a ‘second economy’. Notwithstanding the conceptual problems associated with the idea of a second economy, its prominence in public policy debates offers a unique space to enhance the linkages between the formal and informal economies.
Formal-informal Economy Linkages.pdfFormal-informal Economy LinkagesDr. Miriam Altman2008
The terms informal sector, informal economy, ‘second economy’ and informality are often used interchangeably. Altman defines ‘informality’ as entailing precariousness, in that the activity operates beyond bureaucratic rules or regulations. This is an important concept for poor working people. Focusing policy on structural solutions to reduce precariousness in household livelihoods is particularly important in a developing country context.
Informal Traders Survey.pdfInformal Traders SurveyUnknown
This document provides the informal trader questionnaire administered by Development Research Africa (DRA), on behalf of the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), in the study on the relationship between the formal and informal economies in South Africa.
The Impact of Electricity Price increases and Rationing on The South African Economy.pdfThe Impact of Electricity Price increases and Rationing on The South African EconomyDr Miriam Altman, Rob Davis, Andrew Mather, Dave Fleming, Howard Harris2008
Davies assesses the economic impact of electricity cuts on the South African economy. The paper investigates the potential economic impact of differently distributed pricing or rationing options to reduce peak electricity usage and electricity consumption. More specifically, it assesses the economy-wide impact of a reduction in electricity use of up to 10%, differently distributed across the main economic sectors and users; assesses the potential for short- and medium-term improvements in energy use by large consumers; and considers the potential impact of different pricing proposals on Eskom itself.
The Impact of The Crisis on Semi industrialized Countries.pdfThe Impact of The Crisis on Semi industrialized CountriesJohn Williamson2009
The global financial crisis appears to be resulting in a sharp recession, which is affecting countries worldwide. There are two basic mechanisms through which a recession can be transmitted to a country from abroad. One is through trade or some other form of current account receipts. The second is through the financial markets. Other forms of transmission are derivative, such as a decline in reserves.
Unlocking The Benefits of Cloud Computing for Emerging Economics - A Policy Overview.pdfUnlocking The Benefits of Cloud Computing for Emerging Economics - A Policy OverviewPeter Cowhey and Michael Kleeman
Cloud computing is scalable, on-demand provision of remote computing and data storage. Its dramatic growth is captured in a 2011 study that predicted that by 2014, over 60% of the world’s server workloads would take place on virtualised cloud servers, up from 8% five years earlier. This growth stems from the cloud’s advantages of scale and scope, which lower costs, improve speed, increase flexibility, and reduce risks in IT deployment. The cloud also enables an ecosystem of innovative ICT applications in low- and middle-income economies, which can assist them in achieving their economic and social goals.